Retail Figures Miss Forecasts

Retail sales volumes were stagnant on the month to offer an annual increase of only 0.9%, the Office for National Data said on Thursday – below economists’ predictions for both month-to-month and annual sales increase.

The numbers follow a suprise drop in retail revenue in Oct and advise underlying weakness in much of Britain’s providers sector, increasing the chances the market will shrink in the 4th quarter, something the Bank of England views as likely.

and#34;Consumers are still keeping their powder dry,and#34; said Peter Dixon, UK economist at Commerzbank. and#34;Fourth-quarter action generally goes to become pretty bad… A negative (GDP) figure can’t be ruled out,and#34; he added.

October providers data due on Friday gives the first apparent view of the state of the biggest sector of Britain’s industry in the closing quarter of

2012. Britain came out from its 2nd recession since the fiscal crisis within the next quarter of the season, and headwinds are confronted by the market from government spending cuts, the euro zone crisis and fairly high inflation.

The one light spot for retail sales was in family products stores, where volumes increased by 3.8 percent on the month, the best leap after February 2010. The ONS said it was pushed by electricals such as Apple’s (AAPL.O) new iPad Miniature tablet computer.


Consumer spending, which drives about two thirds of British GDP, has still not gone back to to the ranges seen prior to the 2008 – 09 downturn, as wage increase have been outpaced by stubborn inflation.

Several well – recognized British high – street stores have ceased trading this yr, including JJB Sports, Clinton Cards and Game Group. On Tuesday Its doors are closed by the latest failure, 235 – store electric chain Comet,.

The important Christmas trading period got off to a poor beginning, with retail sales growing less than predicted in the first half of December, according to a survey from the Confederation of British Industry.

More Worries for the Euro

The single European currency now seems not far from the record of more than four months of 1.3172 and now flirting with $ 1.30, despite the launch of a program of asset purchases by the Bank of Japan, after the ECB and the Fed. At midday Wednesday the euro cup for what could be its 3rd meeting on consolidation against the dollar, yielding 0.25% to 1.3012 dollar.

The euro also lost 0.12% to 0.8022 against the sterling and 0.19% to 1.2088 against the Swiss franc.

The monetary event tonight is the launch, in the wake of the ECB and the Fed, a new operation of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). ‘The BoJ has increased the envelope for asset purchases of 45,000 to 55,000 billion yen in response to the actions of other central banks, the weakness of the Japanese recovery and the relative strength of the yen’, explained that a trader morning.

‘A renewed quantitative easing is always welcome in Japan, where the economy is hit by deflation, says the analyst. “The central bank opted for a further easing of monetary policy because of concerns about the global economic recovery and political tensions underway in China, its main export market,” added the broker also RTFX.

RTFX also writes that “the implementation deadline for these asset purchases has also been extended from six months to December 2013.”

The pair euro / yen is not responding this afternoon (- 0.02% to 102.79 yen the euro), but in a week the euro had already returned 2.4% against the yen.

Where are we, seems to ask the euro after its rebound, as its minimum and maximum of a month are located at 1.2295 and 1.3172 respectively dollar (or 7% between the high point and low point )?

“The euro exchange rate remains the area most at risk of rupture. The thing has almost happened twice, when in November 2011 and July 2012, the capital markets are closed to certain countries and their banks’ recently reminded analysts Oddo Securities. But the ECB announced an intervention conditional on the bonds market short term.

‘This allows the brake to the real economy, but it does not offer a quick drive energy. Ultimately, Europe could head out of the water in the course of the next year ‘, prognostic Oddo. Saxo Bank is moderated by stating that “investors still remain attentive to the situation in Spain, which is slow to ask for a bailout with the European Union.”

The U.S. side takes Oddo, ‘the problem is simple. If the tax law is not changed, the resulting fiscal shock (4 percentage points of GDP) will the economy into recession. The political system may well be biased and unwilling to compromise bipartisan, this scenario can not be an option. Early 2013, the shock will be smoothed (but not completely canceled) and the debt ceiling will be raised. For the rest, neither side has a recipe for a labor market tone, which creates just enough jobs for the unemployment rate does not rise ‘, Economist summed yet.

Overall, ‘the central scenario, which describes a sluggish economic growth, subject to fits and starts, it is confirmed’, which argues for variations encountered major currency pairs, with no real direction marked.

Sharp Declines on Euro After Stable Rise

The single European currency recorded sharp declines against its main rivals this afternoon on the forex market, while the Old Continent into recession. And to 13 hours, the euro fell 0.71% against the dollar at 1.2954 dollar.

Concerns about slowing growth in China as well as the uncertainty regarding a request for assistance from Spain weighed on the major currencies? Summarizes the broker RTFX.

Now that the ECB has announced the possibility of asset purchases bonds, the Fed launched the third edition of his ” QE” this time was unlimited and Bank of Japan raised the plĂ©fond its sovereign fund redemptions Japanese, the market pays more attention to the fundamentals. And they are not good.

Chinese conditions, the engine of global growth, continues to deteriorate. That night, we learned that the activity index flash manufacturing PMI for China calculated by HSBC for September rose slightly from 47.6 to 47.8 points. But for the 11th consecutive month, the index remains below the 50 mark, which indicates a contraction (expansion and beyond).

‘The growth of Chinese manufacturing activity slowed forever, but the pace of slowdown is stabilizing,’ said Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC ASie. ‘The recent support measures (decided by the Chinese government) should produce their effects and lead to a modest improvement in the fourth quarter’, predicts Mr. Qu. Just as the economist of HSBC, a northern European trader expects that the index returns the 50 by the end of the year.

News from Europe is no better. It was learned that the Markit composite PMI flash overall activity in the Eurozone fell back from 46.3 in August to 45.9 in September, signaling a monthly contraction in the private sector for the twelfth time in the last 13 months. The rate of decline reached its highest level since June 2009.

On the other hand, the situation deteriorated sharply in the French private sector in September, according to the latest Markit Flash PMI data indicate that the strongest decline in activity for 41 months.

In addition, the auction of Spanish government bonds carried this morning received a mixed reception from operators.

? Once again, the attention is focused on the latest macroeconomic ‘indicates an operator. Saxo Bank, we firmer? Would seem that investors remain skeptical about the fact that the actions of central banks can boost the economy?.

Having ventured up to more than 103 yen the euro at the time of announcement of the additional intervention of the Bank of Japan, the yen is again: the single European currency lost 1.06% against him 101.27 this time. ? The yen regained some ground against other currencies amid speculation inefficiency shares of the Bank of Japan?, Commented yet Saxo Bank.